Polling the Future: Harry Enten Brings Political Data to the Classroom

 

Harry Enten, senior writer and analyst for CNN Politics, delivered an insightful presentation to Stefan Stawnychy’s Power, Politics & Citizenship class, bringing his signature energy and data-driven approach to contemporary political analysis. His visit offered students a comprehensive overview of key issues influencing the current election cycle, with a focus on the critical role of polling and data interpretation in shaping political discourse.

Enten commenced his discussion with a brief history of Gallup polling, explaining its foundational role in modern political analysis. He highlighted the importance of response rates in polling, emphasizing the challenges of engaging underrepresented groups and how these rates could influence the accuracy of data. According to Enten, one of the true values of polling lies in its ability to reveal whether individuals are part of a statistical majority or an outlier.

The conversation shifted to the evolving nature of elections, noting how they are far more competitive than in previous eras. He discussed the gender gap in voting behavior, debunking common myths about its decisive role in electoral outcomes. While acknowledging that gender gaps are a “very real thing,” he cautioned that they do not singularly determine election results, challenging traditional assumptions about voter demographics.

In a particularly engaging segment, Enten explored the growing influence of betting markets in political forecasting. He explained how these markets, currently experiencing significant growth, might offer a more reliable baseline for predicting electoral outcomes than traditional punditry. 

Later in the day, Harry Enten hosted an Upper School assembly, introduced by Livia ’25 and Sebastian ’25, student leaders of the Political Action Committee. Stefan facilitated the conversation, providing students with a broader opportunity to engage with Enten's expert insights and delve into the role of data in shaping today's political landscape.

Harry Enten’s visit provided upper schoolers with a deeper understanding of the complexities of polling and political discourse. His ability to translate data into accessible and meaningful insights left the students with a more nuanced view of the role of polling in contemporary politics and the challenges of predicting election outcomes.